Encouragements for the updates and further developments of these new ETI tools in technical analysis.

 

Entropic Trend Indicators System
( ETI )
a new predictive tool in stock market analysis


Entropy : a measure of disorder ?

It is basic knowledge and written in most of my textbooks:

“Entropy is the measure of disorder”.

Boltzmann brilliant theory cannot be challenged. But its interpretation as the thermodynamic measure of “order" or "disorder” may be considered as archaic and misleading in exact sciences.

A better interpretation might be "a measure of dispersal or spreading out of molecular motional energy in a process as a function of temperature". Nevertheless "measuring disorder" disorder" is still a very fruitful concept in other fields, in open systems of course, where outside energy is the source of growth and where the free energy of a system can be estimated by approximations like in the Gibbs equation.

Entropy of the system and Entropic trend value

A financial system can be described graphically by price. Of course, this is not the whole story, but this is the easiest way to measure a financial system. Price is trending up or down depending mainly:
- on the energy coming or leaving the system and
- entropic fluctuation to reach the equilibrium.

A construction/deconstruction system based on thermodynamical values is in place. Therefore any ticker price in any time frame will move up and down on a chart following criteria summatized in our 8 to ten selected particular experimental functions called "Entropic Trend Indicators" (ETI). A trend of ETI functions is defined in each timeframe when all or most ETI are trending up to the North pole or Nirvana (N box) or down to the South pole or Hell (L box) attracted by some "electromagnetic field" to build a new experimental structure .... a complete ETI rainbow (a rainbow of colors in the expected order). Each trend has a local entropic trend value that can be measured for two successive candles for example. 

Entropic Trend Indicators' (ETI) usefulness

ETI can be used in most human statistics using time frames if enough amounts of data are available.
Here we will try to describe the first uses of "Entropic Trend Indicators" (ETI) system for its most accurate application in stock market analysis.
ETI should also be useful in some other living Human Sciences rich in data, like access to websites or webadvertisements
It is not limited to one ticker, to one stock market or to one timeframe only,

it is universal.


ETI tools have the properties to show some specific problem in a trend up or down in some time frames... and not in others. The translation of existing problems into some special ETI characteristics is the main strength of this new method we have developed.

The financial system is probably the most primitive living organism on Earth growing in an obviously  thermodynamical open system. It is the only measurable living organism and it can be used as a model.

ETI mathematical model can be described as a graphical application of thermodynamics to both symmetrical up and down trends. Like in physics ETI interactions may be described as the modulation of internal energy of some quantized occupancy levels interacting together in significant manners.



This description of market is based on an experimental mathematical model, theoretical framework, algorithmic system or paradigm where entropic trend is a major factor of price move where market psychology is driven by greed, hope and fear.

Their arrangements, interactions and special behaviors is still a matter of research.

But the fact that our system is practically applicable with an extreme accuracy to any ticker moving in the trend, to any significant candlestick and in any time frame, this is probably a good sign that its mathematical environment (describing the reality of the stock market trend) is applicable.

Anyfinancial system or ticker can be described as a "living organism with a project", as the model proposed for any biological living system by Prof. Jacques Monod.

Price of a ticker in a timeframe is interpreted with colored indicators calculated on an experimental progressive basis following strict rules. As a rule these indicators are trending to form incomplete rainbows and ultimately complete rainbows in N and L boxes, interacting together (crossing or fusing) and … even falling into Black Holes (BH). Complete rainbow can also be formed outside the boxes and keeping their significances.


There are eight to ten different Black Holes depending on system quality and time frame. Their characteristics are mainly depending on trends' strength and time frames. 

Our progressive colored ETI functions are a possible graphic translation for the financial world of the molecular translational, rotational and vibrational motions, and most importantly quantized energy levels or microstates levels of energy.
In the following chart the Entropic Trend Indicators are in the top part of the graphics. The second graphics' part is the conventional candlesticks system with the sma support and resistance levels.
 

 

 
 
Complete and incomplete ETI RAINBOWS formation

Entropic Trend Indicators giving a name to the candlesticks

When you are following a road on a map you are crossing small villages, small and big towns. Each village or town has its own name and the path or trend you are following is characterized by these names. When you are following the trend on a financial chart you are crossing candles, and in financial analysis there isn’t any method available to characterize this path. With our method you can give a true, unique and very short name to any candle. And by analyzing the specific entropic properties of this path using up to eight*(or ten) Entropic Trend Indicators (which are interacting together) we can easily and accurately interpret the streaming data (and differently in each timeframe), watching price move and trying to understand the reasons of this move in order to possibly anticipate future moves.

The name of a candlestick is composed of a main name followed by a slash and one (or more) complementary name(s). The main name can be a complete rainbow
(rR for example) or an incomplete rainbow (rif R(VR) where V and R are hybridized, for example).
1. Main name

1.1 Complete ETI rainbow
To form a complete ETI rainbow (r) of the successive colors with increasing values the following indicators G (green), P (pink), V (violet), R (red), O (orange), Y (yellow), B (blue) and W (white) have to be in a separated state (not hybridized or fused) and in the correct order of strength (hierarchy).  
Entropic evolution of complete rainbows can and will only be considered:
  • Inside the top NIRVANA box (N box) or North box or pole limited by the scale of 78.6% (red line) and 100%  or ,
  • Inside the bottom HELL box (L box)  or Low box or South box or pole limited by the scale of 21.4% (red line) and 0%, respectively.

(with some software the boxes' limites on charts are 80 and 20, respectively, but are not considered as the true limits for true rainbow definition).

The 8 progressive complete ETI rainbows (r)  are described as:

  • rG when only G is inside the N or L box to form the ETI rainbow,
    rP with P>G in the N box and G>P in the L box, 
    rV with V>P>G in the N box and G>P>V in the L box,
    rR with R>V>P>G in the N box and G>P>V>R in the L box,
    rO with O>R>V>P>G in the N box and G>P>V>R>O in the L box,
    rY with Y>O>R>V>P>G in the N box and G>P>V>R>O>Y in the L box,
    rB with B>Y>O>R>V>P>G in the N box and G>P>V>R>O>Y>B in the L box
    rW with W>B>Y>O>R>V>P>G in the N box and G>P>V>R>O>Y>B>W in the L box.
  • The two additional "invisible indicators" on some charts have no special colors (for the moment) and are designated X and Z with  Z (invisible) > X (invisible) > W (visible) in the N box and W (visible) > X (invisible) > Z (invisible) in the L box.
  • When one ETI indicator (G) or more indicators are outside the box the name of the rainbow will be:
    prG or prP, prV..... if all indicators are inside the 50% of the chart containing the box.
    (Two years ago we called them ps-rG....for "pseudo rainbow").
  • When one ETI indicator (G) or more indicators are outside the box the name of the rainbow will be:
    pprG or pprP, pprV..... if G or more indicators indicators are outside the 50% of the chart containing the box.


     1.2 Complete ETI rainbows in construction or deconstruction
      Before analyzing the chart you have to defind major and minor trends, and in these trends system you have to know if your rainbows (and therefore their names) are in modular construction or in deconstruction. There is construction when the candles' names are moving from a multi module to a mono module: for example  moving from rG/pricO/riY/ricX  to  rifX(BWX)  (incomplete rainbow)   or to rX  (complete rainbow)

There is "rainbow deconstruction" when mono-modular names are moving to multi- modular names... and this for both UP and DOWN trend.....

1.3 Incomplete ETI rainbow as hybridized states
A rainbow is not fully complete when two or more ETI fonctions are "hybridized" or "fused", so have the same exact value at some time point on a chart. Fused ETI are "incomplete rainbow" (ri) and "fused" (f). We are using also the term "hybridized" because like genes composed of two strains there is an energy relationship with conservation behaviors between indicators at fusion points. Crossing does not involve energy relationship or conservation.
Fusion or hybridization is usually a long crossing with energy interactions: in this major case the result is a "TRANS-dehybridization" like the  TRANS relationship of a double bond in organic chemistry. But in some minor cases there may not be any ETI crossing, just a temporary fusion and de-fusion on the same side that is called "CIS-dehybridization" like a CIS relationship of substituents on a double bond in organic chemistry.
Incomplete and fused rainbow are called rif in the main name and the fused indicators are usually given in addition.
For example rifB(RO) with  hybridized R=O , a rainbow  which would be rB if R and O were not hybridized.
When two or more indicators are hybridized candles' main name may be rifW(VRO), rifY(GP+OY) or ... with invisible indicators ..... rif Z(GP+VR+BWXZ), for example. Also an incomplete rainbow with fusion with at least one indicator outside the box will be a pseudo-rif ps-rif or  shorter prif in the main name.  
Incomplete ETI rainbows are rainbows with increased entropy compared with corresponding complete rainbow. Entropy decreases when a rainbow is formed from an incomplete ETI rainbow or when the system evolves to a higher ETI rainbow level (higher grade). Entropy decreases also quickly when most of the highest indicators are moving in the same direction to 100% in the N box or to 0% in the L box, or when their “density or compaction” increases near 100% or 0%.

2. Complementary name
After the main name and a slash we are using one (or more) complementary name(s) when necessary.
This could describe the additional incomplete structure of positions and  ETI interactions not involved in the main name but inside the top or bottom box. Therefore it is always an incompleted rainbow:

ri : if indicators are not in the correct order and are not hybridized, or
ric : if indicators are in the correct order and are not hybridized or,
rif : if indicators are not in the correct order, but hybridized, and finally,
rifc :  if indicators are in the correct order and are hybridized.

In ric or rifc the c may also mean "constructive order" because these ric or rifc structure may mean "continuity" in the build up of complete rainbow.
But be careful rR/ricY can also be a deconstruction rainbow if rY has just been formed.

More than one complementary name are also separated by a slash.

Therefore a full name may be....... for example:
rR/ricY(OY)/riW or
rifY(GP+VRO)/rifcW or rifY(GP+VRO)/rifW which are two different structures with different possible potentials for the near future.
And with invisible indicators this could be
rifO(GPV)/riR/rifcX/riZ
Near a higher high  a structure such  rifX(WX)/riZ is a clear call for an important pullback in a near future.

Furthermore when a main name is a "pseudo" rainbow (prO or prY, for example) we usually don't add a complementary name, except if an important hybridization has to be shown.
 
ETI Rainbows disappearing into Black Holes (BH)


In addition to the progressive ETI rainbows formation, one special situation is when some progressive indicators values are suddenly degenerating to 100% in the N box or 0% in the L box……… like a rainbow disappearing suddenly in “strong gravitational field” into a “Black Hole”. This is an ultimate entropic event … following the new physics principles of last century.

This BH should usually correspond to a complete (or incomplete but ordered and hybridized)  ETI rainbow in another timeframe and comes usually with a corresponding complete (or incomplete) ETI rainbow determining the continuation of trend or reversal or pullback.
In our system, like in the case of a maximum of eight* visible complete rainbows in the N box” there are only a maximum of eight visible degenerated states of NIRVANA black holes (N-1 to N-8).

N-1 or N-G is when G value = 100%

N-2 or N-P is when G=P= 100%

N-3 or N-V is when G=P=V= 100%

N-4 or N-R is when G=P=V=R= 100%

N-5 or N-O is when G=P=V=R=O= 100%

N-6 or N-Y is when G=P=V=R=O=Y= 100%

N-7 or N-B is when G=P=V=R=O=Y=B= 100%

N-8 or N-W is when G=P=V=R=O=Y=B=W= 100%

For the corresponding HELL “box” there are also only a maximum of eight HELL situations (called L-1 to L-8).

L-1 or L-G is when G value is equal to 0% in the Low or South box.
L-2 or L-P is when G and P values are equal to 0% in the Low or South box.

……………

L-8 or L-W is when G=P=V=R=O=Y=B=W= 0% in the Low or South box.


Very often a NIRVANA or HELL “black hole” situation IN STRONG TREND is a signal of continuation. It is sometimes a strong and efficient signal of reversal for one of the next candles when trend strength is decreasing. In this case it is very often associated with a complete (or incomplete hybridized but ordered) ETI rainbow or a series of Black Holes. Usually a BH has no effects on the fused or hybridized ETI states.
A HELL-4 to 8 or NIRVANA-4 to 8 may be a special reversal signal.... for the future candles in the highest timeframes.

In the "one minute to 15-minute charts" the BH jump monitoring from HELL to NIRVANA and back is a very useful tool in the estimation of pullback risks. A BH in these timeframes is a sign of energy accumulation

Also a “Random Event” is very often described by an important HELL or NIRVANA signal (a Black Hole or a complete ETI rainbow) in some important timeframes.


As you can see:
 Any financial system or ANY TICKER can be described for ANY CANDLESTICK in ANY TIMEFRAME by a SIMPLE FORMULA or LABEL that gives its degree of entropic trend UP or DOWN at any time.
This SIMPLE FORMULA (as shown in following figure) is candlestick and timeframe specific and is the translation into words of all ETI values at any time.




Giving a name to each relevant candlestick manually is not convenient for a quick analysis of a "one minute chart" for example. For the short timeframes this work should be automatized.

* A system with a maximum of eight Entropic Trend Indicators (G toW) is used here. But depending on algorithms translation, timeframe, data available and software one or two additional indicators can be added: we call them X and Z (or invisible indicators). They can be useful to confirm trend direction at the top or bottom limits. Most softwares are not ETI compatible and only a few like Stockfinder can deliver all visible indicators ... plus X and Z results graphically in some timeframes (usually two for daily and one for weekly charts). Some considered as visible ETI like white indicator W in Stockfinder (for example W indicator weekly) are usually also invisible in other ETI compatible softwares. 























 

Financial “genetics” and “chemistry” of entropic trend indicators


As said before some incomplete ETI rainbows are rainbows formed with fused or “hybridized” indicators ( fused colors). In these cases ETI behave like genes before replication and translation into proteins. In order to produce complete rainbows the fused ETI have to "de-hybridize" first to reach a new level of entropy. Like in de-hydridization of genes energy is needed to separate fused or hybridized ETI.
There is also another funny analogy in this system with the chemical migration of a double bond in a chemical compound (a fatty acid, for example) which is usually driven by entropy or the energy of the system. Here in our described financial model at different ETI levels we have observed selected migration of the fusion or “hybridization” site between indicators: from one candlestick to another the fusion site could migrate from V=R to R=O, or from Y=B to B=W, for example (V=R means fused or hybridized VR). When fusion migrates to a higher level it is usually more difficult to separate the indicators' lines, and therefore the system (indicators, price) have to work harder to solve the problem....and usually more time is needed. As in chemical double bonds migration the move may be concerted, ...but not always: in case of non-concerted migration hybridization energy may be kept available for some time. 
Furthermore an hybridization translation or moving between indicators may involve what is called a "transition state" or an "equilibrium form" in organic chemistry, such in an acetylenic structure  -CH(single bond)C(triple bond)C(single bond)CH- in equilibrium with an allele structure -CH=C=CH-. In our ETI system a moving of hybridization between VR to RO, for example, may involve some sort of "transition state" like VRO where all three are hybridized (with V starting to dehybridize and O starting to firmly hybridize to R. So we can have three following candles with the following names: rifR(VR)/riO  and  rifO(VRO) and finally rifO(RO).

In classical technical analysis people are using the supports and the resistances in trying to predict price evolution of a ticker.

By knowing the entropic properties of a trend in each timeframe and the accumulated problems (translated mainly into ETI hybridizations, we can try to predict easier how the system will evolve and what could be the difficulties on its way up or down. This is especially true following the trend.
When a system reaches a complete ETI rainbow it can continue to form the same ETI rainbow (... waiting for the next higher ETI moving to the box) to reach a higher rainbow level or lower entropic level. But when there are no evidences of such a possibility (for example if the next indicator is reversing or involved in a problematic hybridization) the rainbow usually breaks down with a quick change of  ETI direction. But reversals or important pullbacks always have to be confirmed (and therefore validated) in higher timeframes.
 Why ? Because in higher timeframes you may be able to see ETI that are not visible in lower timeframes and may continue to grow in trend direction.
As a rule most of the time (in strong trend) reversal is inhibited by new energy coming into the system.

Candles are like sportsmen: in trend they are like competitive sportsmen under anabolic drugs and may be thinking of growing first and solving their problems afterwards or possibly treating their sickness during the growing stage. When trend is not too strong we may be in a situation where people are using sport for health and may be thinking of solving their health problems first in order to be in good shape for growing afterwards. In this later technical case, any complete rainbow or hybridized rainbow is potentially a pullback point that has to be considered and tested in all timeframes for convergency.

Life's "Necessity" is perfectly described by our interacting Entropic Trend Indicators (ETI). I hope you will enjoy watching ETI growing on your charts like flowers in your garden..... and when a Random event suddenly occurs the situation produced by the Necessity will fall elegantly to simple situation or name following our linguistic system. 
 




Copyright © 2009-13  
B.I.Gentile, Ph.D
 Daniel B., Ph.D
All rights reserved.

Updated : 20130202

 

WARNING

Daily, weekly or monthly charts should be updated every day after market closing, but may not be necessarily updated for any reasons. So please look at the closing date on charts.

My interpretations of technical analysis indicators (if any) are only a personal view that may not be validated by stock prices the next day and are therefore no indications or invitations to buy or sell anything. Trading is no games. Ask a professional trader or your broker if you are not sure….and if you believe he may be wrong just measure carefully the risks/reward ratio